Accidental or Unauthorized Nuclear Launch
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India and Pakistan today decided to move forward on proposals to extend two key agreements on pre-notification of ballistic missile tests and reducing the risk from accidents related to nuclear weapons, diplomatic sources said.
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Seymour Hersh reports that the U.S. has been increasing the pressure on Pakistan to secure its nuclear arsenal but Pakistani officials are chafing at the suggestion that they do not have control. He warns that U.S. pressure (as well as U.S. efforts to draw Pakistan into the conflict against the Taliban) could backfire by further radicalizing the Pakistani military.
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The author looks at recent nuclear 'near-misses' and urges more attention to be paid by the public and presidential candidates to the risk of accidental or inadvertent nuclear war. As a solution, he looks at the proposals for "dealerting" put forward by Dr. Bruce Blair of the World Security Institute.
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Israeli military leaders have begun early planning for a new, robotic defense system, armed with enough artificial intelligence that it "could take over completely" from flesh-and-blood operators in the event of an all-out nuclear attack.
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A new U.S. report that says China's nuclear strategy could result in an unnecessary nuclear conflict has grabbed the attention of Asian strategic analysts and the Western defense community.
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The second failed test launch of Russia's experimental Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile in as many months has renewed doubts about the viability of the country's strategic nuclear deterrent, and in turn increased fears that Russian policy makers might adopt "hair-trigger" operational procedures to guarantee their nuclear forces could survive and respond to a first strike. Some commentators fear that Russian officials have equipped at least one of their secure underground leadership command posts with a "Dead Hand" doomsday communications rocket.
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Nearly six years after the U.S. and Russia agreed to build a joint military center in Moscow to reduce the risk of accidental nuclear war, work on the project has stalled because the two nations can't agree about taxes and legal liability.
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The risk of a Russian accidental nuclear launch is increasing due to their deteriorating early warning network. A U.S.-Russian program to improve joint early warning capabilities has stalled due to financial and legal issues.
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The authors examine the potential for the accidental or unauthorized launch of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan from a normal accidents perspective and then assess the possibility of command and control safegaurds such as Permissive Action Links.
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The United States and Russia unnecessarily continue to maintain thousands of strategic nuclear missiles on high alert for mutual deterrence, heightening the possibility of a catastrophic, unintended launch, according to Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information.
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